Commercial investment intelligence | Dubai
Exploring where to invest, or weighing a specific asset? We examine the lease, the tenant, the vacancy and the exit, and we present the findings to you.
It can be, if the income holds. Dubai office vacancy has fallen to 6.1% and Grade A rents are up 26.2% on the year, yet rents paused in the second quarter and supply is building. The outcome turns on the lease, the tenant and the entry price.
Offices, second quarter of 2026, from market reports.
Office vacancy
6.1%
Down from 7.7% a year earlier.
JLL via Khaleej Times, Aug 2026
Grade A rents
+26.2%
On the year, with Grade B up 31.5% and prime up 13.6%.
JLL via Khaleej Times, Aug 2026
Average office rent
AED 238
Per sq ft. Flat on the quarter, the first pause since H1 2021.
Savills, Jul 2026
Lease transactions
38,082
In the quarter, up 4%. New leases rose 16% to 27,121.
Savills, Jul 2026
Rental registrations
+24.6%
On the year, and up 15.1% on the quarter, mainly new contracts.
JLL via Khaleej Times, Aug 2026
Supply due
1.9m sq ft
In 2026, rising to over 4.2m sq ft by 2030.
Savills, Jul 2026
Occupier demand is broad, and a large share of it is small.
Dubai leasing, Q2 2026
Small units drive the volume of activity. Larger occupiers adopted longer decision timelines amid regional uncertainty, with requirements largely deferred rather than cancelled.
Savills, Jul 2026
Demand drivers
Savills expects demand to stay strong in financial services, technology, trading and professional services.
Savills, Jul 2026
The reasons that recur in the evidence.
Demand
Over 38,000 lease transactions in a single quarter, across a wide range of unit sizes and sectors.
Income
Grade A rents are up 26.2% on the year and Grade B up 31.5%, from a lower base.
Supply
Much of the incoming Grade A space is expected to be pre-leased or absorbed by existing demand.
Structure
The dirham is pegged to the US dollar, and the UAE does not levy personal income tax. VAT of 5% applies to commercial rent.
Where rents have risen, and how much space is standing empty.
By grade, second quarter of 2026.
JLL, as reported by Khaleej Times, August 2026.
Dubai, overall.
JLL, as reported by Khaleej Times, August 2026.
Strong rents are not a guarantee. The pace is shifting.
Savills, Jul 2026
Average office rent was flat on the quarter at AED 238 per sq ft, the first quarter without growth since the first half of 2021.
Savills, Jul 2026
About 1.9 million sq ft is due in 2026, rising to more than 4.2 million sq ft by 2030. Location and pre-let status matter more as it arrives.
JLL, Aug 2026
Retail vacancy fell to 4.7% from 8%, and super-regional mall rents rose 8.5%, while leasing volumes slipped 0.2% on the year.
Ownership and costs, in a few lines. Confirm each for the specific asset.
Income
A commercial asset is bought for its income: who pays it, for how long, and what it costs to keep.
Lease
Weighted average lease expiry (WALE) shows how long the income is secured. Leases are registered through Ejari.
Costs
A transfer cost, commonly 4% of the price, plus service charges. VAT of 5% applies to commercial rent.
Title
Foreign investors can own freehold in designated areas, and free zones such as DIFC have their own regimes. Confirm the title for the asset.
What we examine depends on what you are trying to achieve.
Objective
Lease expiry, tenant covenant and net yield after service charges and vacancy.
Objective
Entry price against comparables, rental growth and the supply cycle in the submarket.
Objective
Office, retail, industrial and hospitality compared on the same evidence.
Objective
For a business buying its own premises: location, specification and price against comparables.
Six questions that decide the outcome. Each is examined from the evidence before capital moves.
A yield is only as good as the lease behind it. We examine the lease expiry profile (WALE), tenant concentration and covenant strength, break options, and passing rents against the market, so the income can be tested rather than assumed.
Occupancy today says little about the next lease event. In Dubai, vacancy has fallen to 6.1% while about 1.9 million sq ft is due in 2026. We study take-up and absorption submarket by submarket, set them against the pipeline, and show how much of it is pre-let.
Commercial assets trade less often and in larger lots. We look at transaction volumes, deal sizes and how long comparable assets took to trade, to show how deep the market is for the asset.
An asking price is one side’s number. We set it against comparable transactions and prevailing prices, and show net yield after costs, so the entry basis can be seen for what it is.
Service charges, maintenance, fit-out and vacancy periods change the return. In Dubai, a transfer cost is commonly 4% of the price, VAT of 5% applies to commercial rent, and leases are registered through Ejari. Ownership form bears on it too. We set out the points that apply, for your legal and tax counsel to confirm.
Lending terms for commercial property differ from residential, and they shape both the equity required and the return on it. We show how income covers debt service under different assumptions.
Office, retail, industrial, hospitality, land and mixed-use, each examined on its own terms in Dubai.
Income
Grade, occupancy, rents and absorption, from DIFC and Downtown to Business Bay and Sheikh Zayed Road.
Income
Rents, sales performance, footfall and anchor tenant strength, mall by mall and street by street.
Demand
Net effective rents, vacancy, specification and take-up around Jebel Ali and Dubai South.
Performance
Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR benchmarks, and the supply still to come.
Pricing
Plot ratio, permitted use, infrastructure and land pricing.
Components
Each component assessed separately, then together.
You do not need an asset to start.
No asset yet
Tell us your objective and horizon. We show where the evidence points: the areas and asset types that fit, with the prices, yields and risks behind them.
Asset in mind
Send the property, project or area. We examine the downside, the income, the market around it and the price, and write up what the evidence shows.
Step one
Income, growth, diversification or a home, and any asset you already have in mind. It takes two minutes.
Step two
A private conversation to agree the brief: your objective, your horizon and the question the decision turns on.
Step three
A written assessment, presented to you. The decision remains yours.
For an asset, four findings. For an exploration, a written view of where the evidence points.
Finding one
How the income and the value behave if conditions turn.
Finding two
Net yield after service charges and vacancy, with the lease and tenant behind it.
Finding three
Vacancy, absorption and supply around the asset.
Finding four
The asking price set against what comparable assets have traded at.
Every assessment begins with the question the decision turns on. These come up most.
Income
We test lease expiry, tenant covenant and passing rent against market rent.
Price
We set the asking price against comparable transactions and what the asset earns.
Exit
We examine transaction volumes and how long comparable assets take to trade.
Have a different question? Write to us with yours.
Begin a Private ConversationA single Dubai figure hides more than it shows.
Prime office
The financial centre and its surroundings. Grade, tenant mix and the depth of demand for prime space.
Core office
The main corridor of offices. Supply, lease structure and how Grade A and Grade B compare.
Clusters
Technology, media and trading occupiers. Unit sizes, free-zone leasing and turnover.
Logistics
Logistics and industrial space near the port and the airport. Specification, take-up and rents.
Industrial
Industrial, warehouse and showroom stock. Net effective rents and the age of the building.
Retail
Super-regional malls, neighbourhood centres and street retail, each on its own economics.
Yields vary by asset class, grade, location and lease structure, and a headline figure rarely tells the whole story. What matters is net yield after service charges and vacancy, and how durable the income is. We assess these for the specific asset instead of quoting averages.
Vacancy fell to 6.1% in the second quarter of 2026 from 7.7% a year earlier, but Savills expects about 1.9 million sq ft in 2026, rising to more than 4.2 million sq ft by 2030, much of it expected to be pre-leased. We compare the pipeline with absorption for the submarket in question.
Weighted average lease expiry is the average time remaining on a property’s leases, weighted by rent. It shows how long the income is secured and how soon the asset faces re-letting.
Foreign investors can own freehold in designated areas, and free zones such as DIFC operate their own regimes. Rights depend on the location and the form of title, so the position for the asset and zone is confirmed with legal counsel.
A transfer cost, commonly 4% of the price, registration costs, service charges, maintenance, fit-out where relevant, VAT of 5% on rent, and financing costs if debt is used. Rates and rules change, so each should be confirmed for the asset at the time.
We provide the evidence: data, information and prices on the asset and its market, assessed for income, entry price and downside, and with every assumption stated.
Figures as published, checked October 2026. Market data moves, so confirm each at the time of a decision.
Tell us the asset and what you need to know.
Begin a Private ConversationPrivate enquiry
Two short steps, then we take it from there.